Lynda Gratton Future of Work

A tale of two cities

It’s been an interesting week. Friday saw me ankle deep in storm water in Mumbai as the monsoon hit with a vengeance. All around me, the street sleepers where dashing for cover, and the slums that ring the city were festooned with blue tarpaulins to keep the rain out of the fragile structure. Traffic was at a stand still and it took me more than 2 hours to traverse the city. Mumbai, like all the Indian mega cities is becoming crushed under the strain of rural migration, hopeless infrastructure and burgeoning businesses. Sitting in the rain it’s hard to imagine how this place will look in 2020 – probably even more crowded, polluted, impossible.

As I took a cab out to the airport the cab driver asked me where I was travelling. ‘Singapore’ I said …  a long pause ‘Singapore is very clean’ he replied wriley. Yes indeed, thought I, Singapore is very clean. As I arrived the big story of the week was the flood in Orchard Road – the glamour shopping street of the centre. Normally the super efficient storm drains would whisk the stuff away almost before it touches the ground, but this time a drain had blocked and there was much criticism of the department with responsibility for drainage. Apparently the flood was up 10 feet deep in some places. However, in the ever efficient state of Singapore, when Heidi, our Hot Spots team member in Singapore, ate in a mall on Orchard Street that evening, she tells me there was no sign at all of flood damage- such was the efficiency of the clean up operation.

As I ponder on 2020 and beyond its interesting to reflect on this tale of two cities. Chaotic, vibrant, disorganised Mumbai – Clean, ordered, staid Singapore. In a sense, in the tale of these two cities we see some of the most profound aspects of the future of work in Asia being played out. Here are three:

• The role of the state vs. the role of the company: I recall last year at the London Business School Summit a CEO observing that in China the brightest go into the government, whilst in India they build companies. In Singapore it is the government's Economic Development Board that is relentlessly cajoling and encouraging companies to create Singapore as a magnet for talent. In India, the government appears to play no such role. It is the companies that take the initiative. For example, the four major Indian IT companies – Tata Consulting Services, Wipro, Infosys and HCL are taking it upon themselves to build a world-class management pipeline through their executive development initiatives and their corporate universities.

…it’s interesting to reflect to what extent business and the state will impact on work across Asia.

• The importance of Quality of Life: One of the most surprising findings of the first phase of out Future of Work Consortium was that when we surveyed executives in western and Asian companies and asked them to think about what would be important for the future – many talked about ‘work life balance’. This flew in the face of my own prejudices about an Asian workforce. I thought than many Asian workers were prepared to move for a thousand more dollars. Instead, it seems that the future of work in Asia could be increasingly about the quality of work/life balance and quality of life

   

… I wonder what this will mean for the way that companies build operations in Asia and also the source of competitive advantage for talent.

• Creating clusters:  Executives around the world have looked for decades with some envy at clusters such as the Silicone Valley cluster of IT companies, VC’s and designers. It's this super charged context that has allowed companies such as Apple to flourish. Asia would like to have the same. The challenge is to what extent in the future governments and industrialists can create what in the USA emerged organically over many decades.

… How possible will it be for China, Singapore or India to attract entrepreneurs and capital to create super charged innovative hubs?

So as I leave Asia I am reminded of the point the China expert shared with us in New York a couple of weeks ago – that trying to imagine Asia’s future growth by either reference to the past, or indeed by reference to the growth of the west would be a very, very foolish thing to do. Already we are seeing very different patterns emerging and for those of us fascinated in the future of work – watching these patterns emerge is an exhilarating sight.

11th June: Letter from Norway

Midnight in Alesund

I’ve fallen in love with Norway.  This week people from as far afield as California and Australia gathered for Innotown in the little port of Alesund to be entranced, excited, involved and think deeply about innovation and the future.

You know how much I believe in the potential creative power of diversity and this had it in spades. Imagine an event that put together me, Jung Chang, the author of ‘Wild Swans’ and  ‘Mao’ ,with Chris Bangle, the Chief Designer of BMW until 2009, and Blake Mycoskie, the Chief Shoe Giver of TOMS Shoes. Spin that with incredibly clear Nordic air, skies that remain light through the night, and an extraordinary troupe of artists –and you can see that this is no ordinary corporate conference.

The focus of many of the conversations over coffee and in the conference room was the future – the future of work, the future of design, the future of globalization. Here is what I am mussing about as I leave:

Experiencing is key
I’m at that phase in writing my book on the future of work when I have to create a cogent point of view about one of the future shifts I believe to be crucial – the shift from work as a means of creating cash to purchase ‘stuff’ – to work as a place of meaning and experiences. My thinking is still a little opaque about this, so I’m looking for any ideas to inspire how I can make describing this shift more exciting. What came over from the conference was the power of experience. Chris Bangle spent his hour bombarding the conference with a cornucopia of images, formulae, maps, and designs all overlaid with his quirky and design centred view of the world. Blake Mycoskie told a series of often very funny and inspirational stories about how he built a community that next year will give over one million shoes to kids in need. I gave some important insights, lots of graphs, and at one point plunged the audience in total darkness to contemplate the default future. Jung Chung spoke with quiet dignity about her life in China . What was fascinating is that each of us had a different set of experiences – but more importantly – the way we choose to tell them was also unique. In a sense we each had a unique ‘signature’ –each illustrated the power of creativity and the joy of experiencing.

The growth of innovative clusters
I’m fascinated by how our work will evolve in terms of where we will live and whom we will be in contact with, crucial in a world that could potentially become ever more isolating. It’s a theme I explored in my last book Glow when I talked about the power of high quality relationships. I believe it is crucial that we build a ‘regenerative community’ of people who have some of the similar skills, but also a whole lot of different skills. This is the dream of Chris Bangle who began his presentation with shots of the village on the mountain top in Italy he is renovating as a centre for design and innovation. His vision is that designers from around the world will spend time together in the creative process. It seems to me that in the future these ‘manufactured’ innovative clusters – like the one the Singapore Government is creating – will be ever more important in a rapidly globalizing world.

The power of social entrepreneurs
In my own research it  has become clear that in the future we need to focus more on work that has meaning and can be seen to make a difference. Blake Mycoskie founded TOMS after a visit to Argentina where he saw how shoe-less kids suffered. Taking 200 pairs of Argentinean sandals back to LA was the beginning of a poignant string of stories that marked the beginning of the concept that for every shoe bought, TOMS would give a shoe to a child. Blake talked about the power of giving as an integral part of the business model of TOMS and how the opportunity for customers to support a cause whilst making a purchase made both economic and moral sense.

Oddly, in the midnight sun on a small archipelago off the coast of Norway I began to see how the focus on experiences, the growth of innovative clusters and the power of social entrepreneurship could be some of the key paths to the ‘crafted future’ I believe is a positive future.

And predicting the future? I can predict that next June will see me back in Alesund – take a look at the website – it would be great to see you there.

1st June: Letter from New York

I’ve just returned from a couple of days spent with a group of multinational senior executives in New York, joined by thought leaders ranging from an ex Goldman Sachs China expert, a US Governor, and a writer about work ....heady stuff!

I’m in the very middle of writing the book about the Future of Work and with a hundred thoughts and contradictions in my head, a few days in NY was just the thing to step back and pause. So, in the spirit of my Letter from Singapore in an earlier blog – here are my reflections on how corporate America is thinking about the future.

Short term anxieties abound – the age of austerity approaches

It’s tough in a recession to suggest that folks focus on the long-term and the future when there is the possibility of a double dip just around the corner. The general feel is that there is much anxiety and concern about even more ‘black swans’. We are beginning to see the unwinding of a vast debt cycle – which in Clinton’s time was 2.5 times GDP and by Bush’s presidency was 3.6 times. According to the China expert, that will need to come down from the current 3.9 to 2.5. Welcome to the age of austerity. That’s a big tick by the way to one of my predictions of the future of work – that we need to move from consumption of things – to a focus on experiences. Perhaps less will indeed be more.

It’s all about China

The complex relationship between the consumption of Chinese goods by indebted American’s continuous to fascinate corporate USA. One thing is clear – the next century will be China’s and across the room every executive was busy creating assets on the ground – from building factories to shaping R&D facilities in mainland China. A combination of low growth in the developed economies, plus fast growth in Asia will create a dramatic acceleration of the shift to Asia. With this comes a growing awareness on the part of corporate America that the days of the USA headquarters is over, and executive teams will need to be a great deal more nationally diverse than they are at the moment.  I remember talking on a radio programme for the BBC about 10 years ago when I was asked to comment about the future of work – I recall that my views of the rise of China brought a postbag of people saying I was crazy. No more. The dominance of China as the economic power is not a question of if – but rather a question of when. What is interesting is that China is developing socially, technologically and politically at a phenomenal speed, and the China we see today will be very different from the one that will emerge by 2025.

Money still really, really matters

Despite the presence of Dan Pink at the meeting –talking about his new book ‘The Surprising Science of Motivation’, and indeed the predictions of the approaching age of austerity – the conversation still came back to executive pay. It seems to me that one of the paradoxes of current corporate life is that whilst intellectually, executives realise that we have to go beyond thinking solely about pay as a source of motivation, at the same time, it’s seen that there is no real alternative. In a lively conversation between Dan and a senior executive, what emerged was an understanding that this myopic focus on pay would have to change – but no one wanted to be the first in. I suspect that this herd instinct – which is so much a feature of corporate life – will really slow down any transformation of sources of motivation from pay to purpose and meaning.

Don’t expect any change on diversity

I’ve been struggling to decide what to write about gender and diversity in my book about the future of work. Those who know my past research will recall that I spent three years recently directing a centre for research focused on women in business. At that time, the future looked rather bleak for women in executive positions – you know the figures as well as I – 50% of grads are women; 30% of managers and 10% of senior executives. The figures have hardly changed over time, and one recent prediction says it’s going to take 60 years for parity! We had a long conversation about diversity across the group, and I must say nothing I heard made me feel any more confident about the future. Some time ago, I decided that the only way to really change would be for governments to adopt the same stance as Norway and force companies to appoint 50% women to main board positions. One of the executives I spoke to has a female CEO who also supports the need for government intervention. If it’s going to take 60 years, then maybe more radical action is needed now. In this group of US executives, the top priority for the near time future is investing in leadership, and the second is a renewed focus on women’s leadership development...perhaps we won’t have to wait 60 years!

The Gift of Diversity

We had a new government in UK last week and as the coalition efforts were underway, the word diversity came up very frequently in discussions, debates and columns. What can we expect from this seemingly diverse team?

I want to argue in this week’s blog that diversity is a gift that will only become more important in the coming decades of work. It’s not new. Perhaps one of the most famous problem solving exercises was the team that cracked the Enigma code in Bletchley Park during the Second World War. These where not simply mathematicians – but rather a group of people from many disciplines –engineers, cryptographers, language experts, moral philosophers, classicist, ancient historian and crossword puzzle experts.  It was this combination of diverse ideas and insights that created the answer.

Over the coming decades we can expect working with very different people to be a simple fact of life. We can already see the early signs of how this diversity can be created. Take a look at InnoCentive to see already how thousands of people from across the world are coming together to solve challenges that inspire and excite them. Take a look at any of the challenges that are being worked on at the moment, and you will see a group of people that have diversity that goes beyond national differences. There is also an extraordinary diversity of points of view – I took a look at a group interested in urban renewal and they included an ethnographer with a point of view about changing human behavior, and an entrepreneur who understands how to get ideas translated into action What’s crucial about these types of groups that initiatives such as InnoCentive are bringing together, is that they attract a diverse and differentiated pool of people keen to solve the problem. And it is not simply information diversity - after all they simply have to go to Google or Wikipedia for information. What’s crucial about this diversity is that it is also based on problem solving diversity.

The superadditive effect - The power of addition and combination

Take a look at Scott Page’s recent book The Difference to really get a feel for why diversity can trump homogeneity so resoundingly. The simple truth is that diversity leads to better outcomes in a world as complex as the one we will inhabit in 2025.  Diverse groups are better because each member brings a perspective that is unique and can then interpret what they see through their own unique experiences. So the ways they think about generating solutions and predicting cause and effect will also be diverse. The sophistication of the final solution they come up with will be the result of the addition of what they each know. What is also important to the sophistication of their final solution is the value of combination. It’s not simply that their various ideas are added, they are also combined – and it’s this set of unique combination that brings the super additive effect (as Bayesian statistics would predict). Of course it is not that all the combination will be useful– but some will and some will bring innovation that could be crucial to the team.

Diversity of ideas, points of view, interpretations and solutions is a gift in 2025 because diversity trumps homogeneity – collections of people with diverse perspectives and ways of seeing the world outperform collections of people who rely on homogenous perspectives.

Of course if you take a closer look at the new hung conservative/liberal pact what becomes clear is that whilst Cameron and Clegg may differ with respect to certain policies – from the perspective of diversity they are remarkably similar. Male, similar age, Westminster/Eton, Cambridge/Oxford. So we can expect that their superficial difference to rapidly evaporate – so much for the power of diversity in the current UK government!

It is all about Choices and Consequences

  We had a marvellous day this week at the Future of Work Consortium, discussing the findings from phase one and mapping ahead the focus for phase 2. It has been a fascinating six month journey of ideas, thoughts, discussions and co-creation on working and living  in 2020/2030.

What we have discovered is that  predicting the future is a matter of degree, and different aspects of the future of work can be predicted with varying degrees of reliability and precision. For example, I can predict with some accuracy that computers will become faster, materials will become stronger, and medicine will cure more diseases, so we will live longer. Others aspects are much less predictable – such as how the way we will relate to each other will change and how our own aspirations will evolve.

Its clear that we need to develop plans for the working future that are flexible, and to pursue ideas that are robust under a wide range of contingencies. Yet, I believe that these coping strategies are only one part of the solution. What we also have to do is improve the accuracy of our beliefs about the future. This is crucial, because there might well be traps that we are walking towards that could by avoided with foresight, or opportunities we could reach much sooner if we could see them farther in advance. Knowing something about the future helps you to prepare for your future, it influences the advise you give others, and could have a fundamental effect on the choices you, your family and friends, your community and your company decide to make, choice about the competencies you decide to develop, the communities and networks on which you focus your attention, or the companies and organizations you choose to be associated with.  
What we have done over the course of this research consortium is to identify the five forces that will most impact on the future of work (technology, globalization, demography and longevity, society, energy and carbon) and looked closely at  the hard facts for each of these five forces. Next, we took a close look at these hard facts over the 6 months of the consortium. We began to build  story-lines of a day-in-the life of people working in 2025 on the basis of what we know of the future. These enabled us to imagine the interplay between a wide variety of ideas and also combine different fields of knowledge and ways of knowing. They are not forecasts – they are simply ways of seeing the future, which assemble different versions of the future at the same time. It shows us just how much the future is full of possibilities.
As we reach the end of the first phase of the  Future of Work research consortium it is clear to be that we can see these shorelines and the future in two possible ways. One is a negative scenario,  where isolation pervades the daily lives of many, and work is fragmented and potentially addicted.  At the same time, it was also possible to construct story-lines that formed a more positive and upbeat scenario – which in effect made the most of the opportunities provided by the five forces and the hard facts. As I reflect on the way that work can develop, it is increasingly clear to me that what separates these two scenario's are the choices we make and the trade-offs we are prepared to live with. over the coming weeks I would like to explore these trade-offs. Tomorrow (thats if the ash shifts from Barcelona where I am now) more than 140 alumni of London Business School are debating the Future of Work - and I mean to share with them the forces, the hard facts and the scenario's. I will also invite them to consider the choice and trade-offs they will make. I'll report back on what I find next week.

Three key reasons why some competencies are valued

In 2010 we can identify four broad overlapping categories of work. The General Managers; the professionals, the entrepreneurs, the knowledge workers, the semi-skilled and unskilled workers. So, how will these broad job roles develop in the coming decades? The wise person preparing for the future would be inclined to consider developing skills and competencies that are likely to be valued in the future. So as we move from the age of the generalist to the age of the specialist we need to consider what to actually focus on. We have known for some time on what basis resources (like skills, competencies and knowledge) are valued. This means of valuation is important because it has changed over the past and will undoubtedly change in the future.

Why are some competencies valued?
Firstly, because they create something that people value: for a resource to be seen to be valuable, it needs to be able to actually create something that others value. This is important because notions of what is considered most valuable changes over time.  In the 18th century the skill to blow glass was valuable because glassware was an increasingly important and valued part of the domestic scene of the wealthy. In the 19th century the skills of the engineer were considered highly valuable because from 1830 onwards the wealth of a town was dependent on whether it had a railway connection. No surprise that in 1830, Isambard Kingdom Brunel – the engineer behind the Great Western Railway – was the pin up of his time and engineering was seen as an important competence to develop. From the 19th century onwards the value of engineering waned except in some places like Germany where the engineers in the BWW and Mercedes Benz companies are revered and engineering is considered a highly valuable skill to develop.

Skills, competencies and abilities rise to ascendance and then can languish as they are seen to be less valuable or as the basis of their value is questioned. The challenge is to predict what skills and competencies will create (or be seen to create) the greatest value in 2025.

Secondly, because they have something that is rare: resources become valuable because they are rare, and are seen to be rare. Clearly, if everyone has the same competencies and skills and there is a large pool of these talents then they will not command a premium. That’s the logic for example behind the valuation of world-class footballers. Hundreds of millions of boys in the world play soccer, and many of them dream of World Cup glory. Talent scouts from the leading football clubs scour the earth for raw talent and even poverty is not barrier – many stars come from the favelas of South America. Once chosen for a club the rarity of the skills of the player is tested every time he walks onto the pitch. Tens of millions of people watch him play and draw their own conclusion about whether he is indeed unique or rare. The challenge here is to be able to identify these important capabilities across the world, as the football scouts are able to spot raw talent.

World-class football talents are rare and therefore are considered valuable. But it is not just football talents that are rare. At any point in history resources become rare because demand exceeds supply. Skills become in short supply because those already in the occupation are leaving, and/or because the demand for the skill is rising.

In the UK for example, the vast majority of labor market movement in the years to 2017 will be accounted for by the replacement of those leaving jobs for retirement. Between 2007 and 2017, it is expected that as the Baby Boomers retire they will create 11.5 million job vacancies. In the UK, companies already face difficulties in securing specialist skills including science, technology, engineering, and math and project management. The UK Government predicts that demand for these skills will continue to grow over the next decade. It is estimated that in the UK alone, an additional 1.3 million people with professional and technical skills and 900,000 managers and senior professionals will be required by 2017. One real challenge (which we will return to when we consider working across five generations) will be to capture these skills whilst retraining others.

Skills also become rare when the demand for them exceeds the supply. Typically this occurs when a new technology opens up a whole new portfolio of skills and competencies. For example, the capacity to program in Fortran or Java was a highly sought after skill at the time these programmes were released.  The challenge is to predict what skills and competencies will be in short supply in 2025.

Thirdly, because they are difficult for others to imitate: to be valuable a competency or skill must be difficult for others to imitate – if I have a skill that pretty much anyone can do then it makes it much less valuable in the labour market. I believe that imitation will be increasingly a real challenge for how to choose what in the coming years. 
The challenge is to find and develop competencies, skills and abilities that is difficult for others to imitate.

Four steps how to become visible in the Future

How will others know who you are, what you know and where you are in 2025? These are important questions as fewer and fewer people will be working fulltime, over time, in a pre-defined job in a large, reputable company. The knowledge rich, dynamic, project based jobs of the future are capable of being really fulfilling – but they are also capable of making people nearly invisible. Take Igor for example as he works from his home in the Ukraine on projects with people he has never met and in companies he has never set foot in. Igor is almost invisible. Even Jill – who has a contract for three days a week for one company, is only somewhat more visible. Certainly the company she is contracted to know who she is and what she does. But do they really know what her potential is? Do they really understand the skills and knowledge she has developed in other spheres? Do they really know what she can bring to the table?

 

The problem of being invisible

This problem of invisibility is a relatively recent phenomenon.  Let’s for a moment indulgence in a time exercise and step back to the year 2009. Imagine that you are a middle manager who has joined a big company – for example the Mars company in their US headquarters in Hackettstown, New Jersey. Perhaps one of the reasons that clinched the deal for you was the newly renovated Mars Chocolate North America headquarters. You were blown away by the solar garden, the open plan office and the conference rooms. You were also attracted by the package and the content of the job. However, what you got with the job, beyond the solar panels and the attractive conference facilities. was visibility.  Perhaps the most precious gift you will receive in this job is that you are no longer invisible. In fact you were very visible.  All around, as take your job in the corporate HQ, there are subtle clues that give away just who you are. Your job grade and title signal your likely credentials and experience. Your office size and car brand show where you stand on the corporate pecking order, how much power you have and whom you will get to know. Your attendance at the corporate training programs at prestigious business schools around the world signals your fast track status to those in the companies, These corporate credentials create the first bond that will help you establish a link with other participants from other companies who could perhaps help some time in the future. What’s more, your experiences, skills, current performance and likely future potential have all been stored in Mars’s sophisticated human resource system. So at any moment in time, at any place in the Mars world, any executive can find out who you are with ease. In Mars you are never invisible – and of course the same was true in 2009 for anyone working as a fulltime employee for a large company.

But here is the rub. In 2025 you cannot look to the corporation to make you visible and create your credentials. Here is why. In part it’s because more people will spend much of their working lives loosely connected to companies. They could like Igor work on a project, which has been subcontracted to a supplier. Or they could be like Jill, working only a couple of days a week – or they could be based in a start up somewhere in the far off galaxies of the ecosystem surrounding the company. Even for those who work fulltime for a company, it is still not going to be like Mars in 2009. For a start, the organizational structure will be flatter and less hierarchical  – so there are fewer fancy job titles to signal status. The majority of work will take place in projects where the boss changes and you are as likely to work with someone from outside the company as you are with someone from inside – so the long associations that make you visible may well be broken.

How to become visible

What this means is that as more people work for more companies in a more loose and flexible way they will have to find other ways of getting themselves noticed – of becoming visible in a world of invisible.  Here is how you become visible in the future:

• First, be prepared to invest in your own learning and to learn constantly,

• Next, become part of a coaching and mentoring cycle – which could be virtual

• Then, follow the lead of professional groups like lawyers and physicians and establish a professional body or what I have called a ‘virtual guild’

• Finally, make sure you are visible by creating a strong, personal brand that describes who you are and what you can do.

Are we becoming more empathic?

So what’s the bright side of the future of work? I’ve discussed the dark side many times in this blog – technology creates ever more fragmented lives; societal trends results in an increase in individualism and with it the possibility of profound loneliness; whilst increasing gaps between the winners and losers creates exclusion and anxiety. But it’s also possible to read the key future trends in an all-together more positive and uplifting way.

We might expect that future technological developments could have as fundamental an impact on our consciousness as they have in the past.

The major impact technology will have on consciousness is primarily through rapidly increasing connectivity. Global satellite and the Internet, the IT revolution, and air travel are already connecting nearly two-thirds of the human race in a 24/7 continuous –feedback loop. That level of connectivity will only rise as the Cloud brings the possibility of all, except those in the most remote corners of the world, being connected. 

What will these technological developments mean for the way we live and the way we work? That’s the question Jeremy Rifkin addresses in his new book ‘The Empathic Civilization’ Rifkin is a president of the Foundation on Economic Trends in Washington, D.C. His argument is that the big shift that will occur in consciousness will be towards greater empathy for others. What he means by that is the humanity is becoming more sensitive to the needs of others.

The last version of the World Values Survey seems to support this, showing a clear trend towards growing empathy among the younger generation, at least in the more developed nations of the world. Rifkin points to fundamental changes in parenting and attachment behavior (we Baby Boomers looked after our kids with care and love); longer periods of adolescence (those continuous Gap years!); more exposure to diverse peoples, communities, and cultures; greater global connectivity; increasing economic interdependence, and more cosmopolitan lifestyles have all contributed to a empathic consciousness.

This is a fascinating development. If we view human nature as essentially materialistic to the core – self-serving, utilitarian, and pleasure seeking – then there is little hope of resolving the issues we face in our lives and in our work. But if we can see human nature is predisposed to affection, companionship, sociability, and empathy, then there is a possibility that we might be able to resolve the challenges we face and it might be that the technological connectivity which plays so central a role in our working lives could be one of the key ways this becomes shaped. 

Concentration and the ‘3 minute rule’

I’ve been fretting about the ‘3 minute rule’ for a couple of years now. What I mean by that is that observations of executives at work reveal that the maximum uninterrupted time they spend is 3 minutes. The future of work suggests that there is little that will reduce this figure. I guess, the rub is that there is not much you can do in 3 minutes (ideas on a postcard please!)

 

 

The 3 minutes came back to me last week as I was re-reading Richard Sennett’s book on craftsmen. You may recall that I drew some interesting parallels between the medieval craftsmen and some of the new emerging occupations.

My line of argument is that high value in the future will go to specialists who have achieved some form of mastery and then switch mastery over the journey of their working life (what I refer to as ‘serial mastery’).  In this blog I’d like to explore what we loose with the ‘3 minute rule’:

Concentration  Sennett reminded me of the work of the psychologist Daniel Levitin who studied the development of mastery in a variety of professions including composers, basketball players, fiction writers and ice-skaters. He reports that ten thousand hours is the common touchstone for how long it takes to become an expert. That translates to practicing three hours a day for ten years. What’s important about these daily hours is that the development of these expert skills requires concentration of a very high order. People master these high order skills because they have the ability to concentrate for long periods of time. This skill of physical concentration is based on how people learn to practice, to repeat what they do, and to learn from repetition. 

…with the ‘3 minute rule’ we loose any ability to develop deep expertise through concentration.

Watching The subject of what you are mastering undergoes subtle changes as those learning the skill slowly transform their capability. These complex skills are learnt through watching – or absorbing the master’s lesson and becoming immersed in their demonstration.

…with the ‘3 minute rule’ we never have time to learn through prolonged watching and of course no more time to mentor.

Sympathetic Illustration If like me, you loved the recent film Julia and Julie, you may have been charmed by Julia Child’s descriptions of how to create French classics such as Poularde a la d’Albufera. Child’s sympathetic illustrations empathised with the novice cook on her journey. As a consequence her instructions for the dish take over 6 pages – way more than a precise direction of the recipe. What this more elaborate, humane and emotional description actually does however, is connect the reader with their imagination

…with the ‘3 minute rule’ precise and short directions will always win over the more whimsical sympathetic illustrations.

Stumbling  So much of what enlarges our imagination comes through ‘stumbling’ on the unexpected, unforeseen. Readers of my book Hot Spots will recall that I make much of this under the title ‘boundary spanning’. It’s about creating sufficient time and space in an every-day working life for the unexpected to occur.

…with the ‘3 minute rule’ we never have time to stumble – instead always walking the straight and narrow path.

So – how can we elongate our time and spend more time concentrating, watching, listening to sympathetic illustration and stumbling? I think it’s a crucial question for now and even more tough for the future of work. I made some suggestions in my last book Glow – I guess really in the nature of realising the problem and then trying a range of techniques to elongate time. You can download a couple of the chapters on www.hotspotsmovement.com/downloads.

The Return of the Craftsman

One of the most hotly debated blogs from my FOW series (well apart from the blog on executive pay of course) has been my prediction that the future will herald the age of the specialist. Remember my observation of my 16 year old son’s creation of a passable university degree level essay on bird flu from a couple of hours spent on Wikipedia and diving into an assortment of medical journal articles? The argument goes that these broad generalist skills will simply not be as valuable as specialist skills, since so many people have access to the same information. In fact I used the word ‘serial mastery’ to show how we need to slide or move from one area of specialism to another.

I want to return to the debate about specialism and mastery again – but this time through the lens of the craftsman. And specifically to look at the issue through the lens provided by the LSE/Columbia based sociologist Richard Sennett and his 2008 book The Craftsman. Richard is taking a backwards rather than a forward look at to the life of the craftsman. Yet when we consider the sorts of mastery and specialism that’s going to be key to the future of work – then I believe we will see the return of craftsmanship and so we have much to learn from their experiences.

Skilled Repetition Craft based work is created through a trained practice that requires the craftsman to go over an action again and again. With each repetition the content changes as the craftsman becomes more skilled- what Sennett describes as a kind of circularity, ‘the virtue of repeated practice’ eventually leading to an embodied knowledge. In these communal actions,  tacit knowledge, unspoken and codified words were absorbed.

 …with regard to the future of work: where and how will these repetitions take place?

Workshops, Guilds and Communal Rituals  In the Middle Ages craftsmen slept, ate and raised their children in the place in which they worked – places where labour and life mixed face- to- face. These workshops were organized into systems of guilds, which served as the hands-on transmission of the craft, or the ‘knowledge capital’ that was the economic power of the guild – the guilds also served to establish the requirements for selection and promotion.

…with regard to the future of work: how will these guilds develop? , and what will be the mechanisms by which they are held together in a virtual world (see my earlier blog on virtual guilds for some ideas about this)

Apprentices, Journeymen and Masters  Craft development began with an apprenticeship typically lasting for seven years with the costs borne by the young person’s parents. If successful, now a journeyman, the craftsmen would work for another five to ten years before demonstrating mastery.

…with regard to the future of work: what will be the means by which these apprenticeships are served?

Personal Reputation, Trust and Personal Distinction  This was considered the most important obligation of a craftsman and the guilds provided a frame to establish their probity. Their prosperity depended on their making a name for their goods – with an evermore personal sign of distinction. Typically the craftwork changed slowly as a result of the collective effort.

…with regard to the future of work: how does personal reputation, ‘brand me’ become formed?

 

 

 

 

 

Serial Mastery

 

It’s becoming increasingly clear to me that the future of work is about being specialized, masterful, knowledge rich. The days of the generalist are over. Gone is the time when knowing a little about a lot brought any competitive advantage. There are billions of people out there who also know a little about a lot - supported by the ever advancing joined up technology of the world.

       From generalist...

 

I saw this devaluing of generalist so very clearly last week as I watched my youngest son create an essay on Bird Flu. He is 16 preparing for what in the UK we call ‘A level ‘ exams - and this was the topic. I sat next to him as he pulled out bird flu references in Wikipedia - dived into some of the medical journal articles which had taken the argument further - and then took a close look at the UK Government’s white paper on the subject. All the time he was snipping pieces from here and there and downloading data to create maps and charts. Within four hours he had created what looked to me like the sort of essay I would have written in my second year at University. So does he really know about bird flu? In a sense he does - but this is generalist knowledge created from the scraps and scrapings in public sources. What he does not have is any original thoughts on it, any well developed point of view, or any valuable insights that others don’t have. Hey don’t get me wrong - the guy’s only 16 and I would not have expected more.

        ...to master.

 

But what he did was what any bright 16 year old anywhere in the world with access to broadband can do. Contrast this with mastery - where depth, points of view, valuable insights and deep skills are crucial. That’s what is going to create competitive advantage in the future of work. However, thinking about specialism and mastery raises in my view two big questions:

 

*  what do you become masterful at?

*  how can you adapt over time?

 

Love as the basis of mastery: my simple response to the first question is - go with what you love. If you are going to be working until you are 70, then you better find something you love. I remember a couple of weeks ago talking to the writer Daniel Pink about this. He decided (primarily through parental pressure) to become a lawyer. It took him over a decade to re-align to what he loved - writing speeches and books. He was envious of my own decision to go with what I loved - psychology - because the doctorate I went on to study has been the basis of much of my thinking. There is always a temptation in tough labour markets like the one we have right now to try and ‘second guess’ the market. To find skills and develop competencies you believe will be the most valuable in the future. In my view it’s impossible to second guess the market - so stick with what you love. So that gets us onto the second question. Do we stick with one love forever? Here my suggestion is to go for what I would call ‘ serial mastery’

 

Serial Mastery: I was knocked out this week by a group of women at London Business School’s conference on ‘Women in Business’. They were on a  panel called ‘the road less trodden’ and talked about how they had changed their careers, or had multiple careers. Here are some of these stories:

 

Lorella Zanardo - started working life in Italy with a degree in English Contemporary Theatre.   Joined one of the big consultancy firms after leaving university and spent much of her career as a business consultant. Became incensed by the way women in Italy are portrayed in the media and decided to work with a couple of friends to make a documentary about it. The documentary Il Corpo della Donna (Women’s Bodies) has became a huge hit on You Tube and went on to create an enormous groundswell in Italy about the portrayal of women.

 

Mireille Guiliano XX- spent much of her life in French business - ending up as a very senior executive in LVMH. Noticed that women often lacked self confidence and felt uncomfortable in their skin. Decided to write a book about how Parisian women create a sense of savoir faire. The book sold millions of copies around the world and she is now on her fourth.

 

Heather McGregor after an MBA at London Business School joined a banking group as a stock broker, becoming one of the highest rated brokers in the business. Decided to run her own business and bought a search consultancy. At the same time developed a reputation as a writer and now writes the Mrs Moneypenny column in Saturday’s Financial Times. Is currently preparing for a comedy run at the Edinburgh Festival.

 

These are serial masters. They have a core of highly valuable skills that they love (analytics or writing or creativity or business acumen) and around these core skills have rediscovered lost passions (Lorella’s passion for creating); let initial ideas reform into new mastery (Mireille’s observation about Parisian women) or spun off into new paths (Heather’s discovery of her talent for comedy).

 

These are the stories I believe to be ‘future proofed’ - a combination of initial mastery with rediscovered lost passions, reformation of new mastery, or spinning along new paths. I only had to look at the energy and excitement of these four women to be sure that the future could indeed be incredible.