Lynda Gratton - The Future of Work

5 Trends to Watch in 2014

The start of a new year is a natural point for thinking ahead and planning for the future.  Just before 2013 ended, I sat down for an interview with the BBC's Peter Day, continuing a conversation he and I have been having for over 20 years.  During the interview I talked not only about the changes I’ve observed since he and I last spoke, but also about the five trends I see emerging in 2014 and beyond.

The shade of your future depends on where you are

Something that has become abundantly clear in recent years is that whether your future seems bright or dim depends on where you live. Young people in Europe, for example, are facing an extremely tough time and face the prospect of being less prosperous than their parents generation. But for their counterparts in India or China, expectations are entirely different, with many of them looking forward to a higher income than their parents.

It’s my belief that the youth unemployment we see affecting many countries is structural not cyclical. The past few years have been marked by the hollowing out of work, by which I mean that the  middle-skilled jobs traditionally taken on by graduates have been outsourced or being replaced by technology, leaving only low-skilled jobs or  high-skilled jobs which require more experience and education than the average twentysomething has to offer. This can leave young people adrift, without that very first job role from which to move upwards.

Online education

One major game-changer which I see having a huge impact in 2014 is online education. Online courses are becoming widely available – and they are revolutionising the scope of what people can aspire to. Suddenly, people all over the world are enrolling on courses that were previously only available to affluent individuals in specific locations. I saw a living example of the impact this is having at the World Economic Forum at Davos in 2013.  There I watched a panel with Bill Gates, the head of Stanford, the head of MIT – and a 13 year-old Pakistani girl. If you’re wondering why this girl was invited to join these eminent figures, the reason is simple: this young teenager came top in Stanford’s online examinations. This struck me as an outstanding example of how the world is changing: here is a girl who even five years ago would have had no opportunity to leave Lahore, but thanks to a world-class university putting its courses and examinations online, she has the world at her feet. There is no doubt that this will create huge competition for young people in the West.

Quotas for women?

It’s astounding to think that while 50% of graduates are women and 30% of managers are women, only 10% of business leaders are women. For someone who thought that the glass ceiling was about to shatter 20 years ago, this is extremely disappointing. Despite all our hopes to see more women at the top of leading organisations, the speed of change has been glacial. It seems that large organisations remain hierarchical, bureaucratic and have a tendency to pay lip service to the concept of having women in the boardroom. Frequently, they are not places where women feel comfortable holding senior positions. One solution that has been put forward is that of female quotas, but this is an issue which divides opinion amongst senior women. For my part, I’m on the side that thinks quotas are a good thing. The way I see it, if you are in a situation where nothing seems to be moving, a shock is what’s needed.

The business side of social media

I also think we’ll start to see organisations using social media within their businesses as elegantly as people use it in their everyday lives. A trend that has emerged in the last year or two is that there is technology that connects every single person in an organisation in a very sophisticated way. For example, I’ve seen this happening at Tata Consulting Services, a business that employs over 150,000 people under 24 and connects them to each other using social media. The result of this is that people naturally form communities to get things done, to discuss ideas, and to have fun. Since their Knome platform was launched, TCS employees have formed themselves into 3,500 communities. My team at the Hot Spots Movement helps companies do this in a more targeted fashion with their FoWlab jams: facilitated online conversations which companies can use to engage their employees on issues as diverse as brand values, job design and meaningful work.  I see this becoming a model that many other companies will follow. 2014 promises to bring some interesting organisational changes led by technology, particularly the kind that allows people to communicate on a many-to-many basis. This kind of communication model will have a huge impact on how people work together – and on the role of leaders.  In fact, it has the potential to change the very nature of what we call leadership. After all, if information is flowing easily and horizontally – what does a leader do?

Reconsidering trust

Both online education and social information sharing rely enormously on trust – something that will prove challenging for some. For those of us who are Baby Boomers or from Gen X, building trust has always been based on face-to-face interaction – and building trust in a virtual environment can prove challenging. People from younger generations, on the other hand, have grown up working online and playing games virtually, which gives them the advantage of being able to develop trust easily without the need for face-to-face contact. A workforce is emerging where humans can build trust in a virtual environment and this promises to revolutionise how information is shared and how knowledge and expertise flow within organisations.

 

 

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Are you an Adult at Work?

It’s been an exciting year – economic turmoil in Europe, extraordinary growth in many of the developing countries, the rise of some companies and demise of others. What is clear is that we are in the midst of an industrial revolution greater than the world has ever seen with all the turbulence, the challenges and the opportunities that previous revolutions have brought. Partly as a result of this, it seems to me that the relationship between companies and their employees is undergoing a fundamental shift. All over the world the old Parent to Child relationship is moving towards a potentially more balanced Adult to Adult relationship. This is generally good news - but don’t underestimate what this will mean to your working life and what you will have to do to make the most of it.

I’ve looked back over my own experiences of 2011 – multiple trips to Asia and the USA, some fascinating work with the World Economic Forum on leadership, and the research of my team on the future of work. Mulling over this it seems to me that there are 5 questions we should all be asking ourselves about our preparation for the future. All of them in some way resonate with this shift from a Parent to Child relationship at work, to a more balanced Adult to Adult. Yet whilst there are great aspects to being an Adult at work – it also shows that this brings with it responsibilities and commitments. Here are five questions to ask yourself:

1. Am I letting my context overwhelm me?  

Spending time in China last month I was struck by the upbeat enthusiasm of Chinese youth. It’s clear they have much to play for. It was a stark contrast to an earlier visit to Madrid where I heard at first hand the impact of 40% youth unemployment. Being a young graduate in a country with near zero growth is not pleasant, and we know what psychological scarring this experience can have. Context can indeed be overwhelming, and it can feel as if there are no real options against which choices can be made. But looking forward it seems to me that it crucial to see choices even in these potentially more restricted contexts. That’s why, for example, last year I supported my son Christian Seiersen to spend a year in China and India before he went to university. What is clear is that we are at the beginning of a major re-balancing of world’s growth and prosperity. You need to be very clear sighted about this and work out the choices you have – and then go for them – even if that means re-locating to the other side of the world. Children wait for Parents to make the world good for them – Adults try to make their own context.

2. Am I a Technological Child?   

One of the exciting research projects we undertook this year at the Future of Work Consortium was to look at how Gen Z’s (those under the age of around 12) think about work and technology. We have video clips of kids less than two years old working proficiently with iPads and Skype with ease and saw a real excitement in this group to engage with leading edge technologies such as holograms. But what we also found is that it’s not simply age that defines technically savvy. In the ‘technology and productivity’ survey we undertook with our consortium members this month, we also found some Baby Boomers and Traditionalist just as excited and knowledgeable. There are indeed enormous opportunities for each one of us to use technology to significantly boost our productivity and indeed create greater innovation. Many of us are choosing to do this by buying our own technological tools rather than waiting for our company to do this for us. This makes sense. It’s all part of the bigger Adult to Adult shift we are going to see. Parents buy their Children their computers: Adults make their own choices.

3. Am I in control of my competencies?  

We have just completed a 72 hour ‘Jam’ where we asked 1,500 Gen Y’s from one of the global professional firms to enter into a world-wide virtual conversation about their experience of work. I was slightly surprised by the extent to which this generation (now in their 20’s) is defining work almost exclusively in terms of how much they are learning from it. Good Work provides opportunities to do exciting, stretching work with talented peers: Bad Work may pay well, but in the long term erodes your intellectual capital. It seems to me that this is a group of people who are preparing for a world where the only game in town is to develop deep skills, preferably in more than one area. Work then moves from the old deal (which I talked about in my book The Shift) – ‘I work…to buy stuff…that makes me happy’ – to the new deal – ‘I work…to learn stuff…that makes me long term employable’. It’s a good trade – between short term gains to longer term personal resilience and capability. Sounds like an Adult to me… the Child would go for the ‘buy stuff’ anytime (although having said that the Gen Z’s we watched seemed mad about learning).

4. Do I have the courage to make the hard choices?   

Here is the emerging deal about work. Your working life will be shaped by the shifting patterns of longevity (you are likely to live considerably longer than your parents) and demography (in many regions there will be a much higher proportion of people over 50). This means that looking back to your parent’s working lives is not really going to give you much of a handle. Moreover, your current employers are unlikely to take a parenting role in really looking after you in the long term. So it’s time you faced up to some of the hard choices you face:  1. To build a career that enables you to work longer (at least into your late 60's or early 70’s), 2. Be prepared (like the Chinese who save around 40% of their income) to save a significant proportion of your income throughout your working life, 3. Consider ways to reduce your consumption and live more simply. You don’t have to make all of these hard choices – but you are going to have to take at least one. It’s about making choices as an Adult.

5. Am I making the most of the future? 

No question that Number 4 was a tough one – so let’s finish with a more uplifting question. The future of work will require us to make some tough decisions – but it will also provide some great opportunities. Here are my top four opportunities:

• To live a longer, more healthy and productive working life.
• To spend more time working from home in an increasingly flexible way.
• To hook up with people across the world via rapidly developing ‘collective intelligence’ technology.
• To get technology to do the mundane stuff – leaving you to build deeper skills and engage in more meaningful work.

How far advanced are you in making them happen? Over the next couple of years there will be many opportunities for each of us to craft exciting and meaningful working lives – let’s make sure we don’t simply wait for others to make them for us. 

 

The 10 ways to Future Proof your Career

 

With the publication of my new book The Shift: the future of work is already here - there has been much debate about what it really takes to craft a career that is likely to stand the test of time. In the book I talk a great deal about the five forces that will shape work and careers: ever greater globalization of innovation and talent; the development of ever more sophisticated connective technologies; profound changes in demography and longevity which will see many live until they are 100 and others live in regions where 40% of the population are over 50; broad societal forces that will see trust in institutions decrease and families become ever more re-arranged; and finally, the impact that carbon use and Co2 will have on how we think about our own consumption patterns. Taking this rich cocktail of forces into consideration here are my 10 tips about skills, networks and choices.

1. Don't be fooled into walking into the future blindfolded - the more you know what's in store, the better able you will be to meet the challenges and really capitalize on your options. So keep abreast of the forces that are shaping work and careers in your part of the world and think about how they will impact on you and those you care for. Making wise choices will in the end come from your capacity to understand – don’t rely on governments of big business to make the choices for you.

2. Learn to be virtual - we are entering a period of hyper technological advancements - avatars, holographs and telepresence are all just around the corner. If you are a young ‘digital native’ you are already connected to this – but if you are over 30 the chances are you are already behind on your understanding. Work will become more global and that means that increasingly you will be working with people in a virtual way – its crucial that you learn to embrace these developments and don't let yourself become obsolete through lack of technical savvy.

3. Search for the valuable skills - think hard about the skill areas that are likely to be important in the future - for example sustainability, health and wellness, and design and social media are all likely to be areas where work will be created over the next decade. Also remember that jobs that involve working closely with people (chef, hairdresser, coach, physiotherapist) are unlikely to move to another country.

4. Become a Master - don't be fooled into spread your talents too thinly. Being a 'jack of all trades' will mean you are competing with millions of others around the world who are similar. Separate yourself from the crowd by really learning to master a skill or talent that you can develop with real depth. Be prepared to put your time and effort into honing these skills and talents.

5. Be prepared to strike out on your own - there will always be work with big companies - but increasingly the real fun will come from setting up your own company. We are entering the age of the 'micro-entrepreneur' when ever decreasing costs of technology will significantly reduce the barriers to getting off the ground, and when talented people across the world will be connected and keen to work with each other.

6. Find your posse- to create valuable skills and knowledge you will need to quickly reach out to others who can help and advise you. This small  'posse' of like-minded and skilled people is a network that will be central to your really building speed and agility in your career. Don’t leave it too long to find and cultivate it.

7. Build the Big Ideas Crowd - the future is about innovation, and sometime your best, most innovative ideas will come as you talk and work with people who are completely different from you - perhaps they have a different mindset, or come from a different country - or are younger. It is this wide network, the 'big ideas crowd' that will be a crucial source of inspiration. Make sure that you don’t limit yourself to working only with those who are just like you.

8. Go beyond the family  - your career success will depend in part on your emotional well being and resilience. In a world of ever shifting relationships, it's important that you invest in developing deep restorative relationships with a couple of people - this is your 'regenerative community' and they are crucial to your well being and happiness. Make the investment as soon as you can and make an effort to maintain and build these relationships over decades.

9. Have the courage to make the hard choices - your working life will be shaped by the shifting patterns of longevity (you are likely to live considerably longer than your parents) and demography (in many regions there will be a much higher proportion of people over 50). So you need a strategy for the long term. You have three hard choices:  1. Build a career that enables you to work longer (at least into your late 60's or early 70’s), 2. Be prepared (like the Chinese who save around 40% of their income) to save a significant proportion of your income throughout your working life, 3. Consider ways to reduce your consumption and live more simply. It does not matter which hard choice you make – but you are going to have to make at least one of them.

10. Become a producer rather than a simple consumer - And finally... the old deal at work:  'I work, to earn money, to buy stuff, that makes me happy' is rapidly becoming obsolete. Engaging in meaningful work where you can rapidly learn will become a priority (although fair pay will always be important). So think hard about sharing and great experiences rather than simply building your working life around consuming.

 

Take a look at my videos and download The Shift Workbook at www.theshiftbylyndagratton.com. You can also download The Shift from the App Store now.